The political landscape in Queensland is about to undergo a significant shift, and the Stafford byelection is at the heart of it all. This seemingly local contest has the potential to send shockwaves through the state's political arena, with implications that reach far beyond the boundaries of the Stafford electorate.
The Battle for Stafford
In the northern Brisbane suburb of Stafford, a byelection is underway following the tragic passing of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan. This seat has historically been a stronghold for the Labor party, with a working-class heritage that dates back to 1989. However, the sudden death of Sullivan and his expulsion from the Labor party in 2025 have created an unexpected opportunity for the sitting LNP government.
The LNP's Fiona Hammond is predicted to snatch the seat with a significant vote share, potentially reaching 51-52% after preferences. This would be a historic victory, as byelection swings towards a sitting government are rare. Even a reduction in Labor's margin, which currently stands at 5.3%, would be considered a loss for the party and its leader, Steven Miles.
The Impact on Miles' Leadership
If Labor loses Stafford, it would be the first time in 50 years that a state party has lost a byelection to the government from opposition. This outcome would heap immense pressure on Miles' leadership. Political experts like Paul Williams suggest that a loss would likely be terminal for Miles, with Shannon Fentiman, the shadow treasurer and shadow minister for women, poised to challenge his position.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the psychological aspect. A loss in Brisbane, a region where Labor has traditionally been strong, would be a devastating blow to the party's morale and could signal a broader shift in voter sentiment.
One Nation's Absence
One Nation's decision not to stand a candidate in Stafford is a strategic mistake, according to Williams. While they may not have won the seat, their absence has reduced the likelihood of a Labor victory. In a seat where One Nation has historically struggled, their potential vote share could have significantly impacted the outcome, especially with the Greens' how-to-vote card not recommending preferences for either Labor or the LNP.
A Message to the Crisafulli Government
Miles has framed the byelection as an opportunity for voters to send a message to the Crisafulli government. However, the outcome, whether a Labor victory or defeat, is unlikely to change the government's leadership. The real impact will be felt within the Labor party, where a loss could trigger a leadership challenge and a potential reshuffle.
In my opinion, the Stafford byelection is a microcosm of the broader political dynamics in Queensland. It's a battle that will shape the future of the state's political landscape and provide valuable insights into the mood of the electorate. Keep an eye on this contest, as it may just be the catalyst for significant change.
